By Christian, Left Socialist Party (Belgium)
The political contours of the “Zeitenwende” – the “historic turning point – the geopolitical shift that is bringing down the once-successful model of German capitalism have been sharpened with the elections of 23 February.
With 16.4%, the social-democratic SPD achieved its worst result since 1890, when Friedrich Engels was still alive.
The far-right “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) has more than doubled its votes. With support standing at 20.8%, this is the best result for a reactionary fascist-leaning party in Germany since 1933. With the exception of a few urban constituencies, notably in Berlin, the AfD dominates the former East Germany.
With 28.5%, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) achieved their second worst result since 1949. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), which was the third largest party in West Germany in the post-war period, has not reached the electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation.
Germany is overtaking the rest of the world in terms of political instability and polarisation. In recent years, the so-called “traffic light” coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP, which collapsed in November, was already following the global trend in which dominant layers of the bourgeoisie were becoming more sympathetic to the far-right.
Friedrich Merz, who is likely to become chancellor, embodies that turn. He was a member of an ultra-reactionary student union in his youth and rose through the ranks of the German branch of Black Rock, the world’s largest asset manager, before becoming head of the CDU in 2018.
Despite his flirtation with the AfD, Merz says he will not form a coalition with the far right. That would be too disruptive for German capital. The most likely coalition is that of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats. The Greens will not be involved, as both the FDP and are not needed because the FPD and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) failed to reach the 5% electoral threshold.
Cuts and divisions on the agenda
The growth forecast for the German economy this year has recently been lowered to 0.3%. This reflects the uncertainty about what the Trump Presidency means for Germany’s export-oriented economy. It follows two consecutive years of recession, with the economy shrinking by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
Disputes over the ‘Schuldenbremse’, which prohibits any deficit of more than 0.35% of GDP, caused the fall of the previous government. They will remain very problematic for the future coalition under Merz.
Even if fiscal discipline is eventually relaxed, the cost of the crisis will fall entirely on the working class, the most oppressed sections of society, and the environment. The bourgeoisie will do everything in its power to implement a policy of division in order to push through its anti-working class agenda.
The return of Die Linke
Die Linke did very well gaining 8.8% nationally. It became the largest party in Berlin. In 2021, Die Linke fell below the electoral threshold, and in 2023 Sarah Wagenknecht left to set up a social-conservative party – the BSW. This weakened Die Linke on the electoral plane, even though membership increased. (1)
Last September, the BSW became the third party in three regional elections in East Germany, clearly overshadowing Die Linke. In this election though, the BSW has failed to reach the electoral threshold.
This is the result of the BSW’s participation in two regional governments, the lack of members to run a decent campaign at national level, and the election of Trump, which has made her position on Ukraine less relevant (2). Potential voters may have preferred to vote directly for AfD, as there is agreement between it and the BSW on many points of programme.
On 29 January, Merz used the votes of the AfD in the Bundestag to push through a motion aimed at tightening Germany’s immigration policy. BSW also supported the motion, which was narrowly rejected. This split in the cordon sanitaire against the far right has been a wake-up call and has led to numerous demonstrations of protest.
Following this vote, Die Linke MP Heidi Reichinnek gave an impassioned speech. She immediately became a rising star on social networks. Reichinnek criticized Merz for deliberately collaborating with the AfD, just two days after the Auschwitz commemoration (3). This contributed to a sharp increase in the number of Die Linke members. By 18 February, Die Linke had 91,000 members, 31,000 more than a month earlier. (4)
With 11.6%, the Greens are the coalition party that suffered the smallest loss. The fairly prosperous green electorate seems to care little about issues such as social security and price increases. (5) The green discourse on immigration contains traces of humanitarian concern, but this is not credible given its willingness to form a coalition with the CDU/CSU.
Young voters strengthen the left
The return of Die Linke was driven by young people, especially young women. Of voters between 18 and 24 years old, 34% of women voted for Die Linke, compared to 15% of men. Among women under 25, Die Linke is the most popular party, while among men in this age group it ranks third, after AfD and CDU/CSU. The Greens, a party that was previously very popular with young women, is now only in third place.
The modest return of Die Linke is encouraging. Its left-wing socio-economic program is partly a break with the way the capitalist system is run today, which benefits only a handful of ultra-rich.
Die Linke has good positions on the fight against oppression, especially racism and LGBTQIA+phobia, which are currently on the rise in Germany, as elsewhere, boosted by the behaviour, words, and actions of the mainstream media and pro-capitalist parties.
However, Die Linke also has major shortcomings that explain its previous decline. Where Die Linke participated in governments, it adapted to the system. Die Linke is too often absent from movements of struggle, and is plagued by deep internal divisions. As a result, some of its positions are confused, weak, and even downright wrong. This is especially the case in regard to the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the liberation of Palestine, a theme that was absent during the elections.
The young people who are attracted to Die Linke will have to take the initiative themselves to organise themselves and advance the necessary struggles, without making concessions to the extreme right or to capitalism in crisis. Only in this way will they be able to turn the tide on the socio-economic, ecological and oppressive fronts, including the racist and colonial oppression of Palestine.
