By Walter Chambers
So shocking was the speech delivered by US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference that the Chair burst into tears during his closing speech. Barely a day has gone by since Trump’s inauguration in which a horrific new twist has not been added to the US’s relationship with other countries.
Repeating his threat to take over the Panama canal, Trump doubled down on his attacks on Canada, and threatened to “buy” Greenland. Escalating his horrific threats, Gaza, he thundered, should be turned into a tourist centre, forcing millions of Palestinians to seek refuge in neighboring countries.
Vance’s speech in Munich left European leaders complaining that the US was no longer “an ally” but “an adversary”. Behind-the-scenes discussions over the past year in NATO and the EU about the need to “Trump-proof” these institutions are now out in the open, as the EU leaders panic about how to deal with this new threat.
This sharp change in course by the world’s main imperialist power will leave a feeling of deep treachery by millions: in Gaza the Palestinians who have suffered genocide by the Netanyahu regime, with the full backing of Western imperialism; and now too in Ukraine, where the brutal Russian imperialist occupation has left tens of thousands killed, millions of refugees and whole cities razed to the ground.
Many commentators in the bourgeois media describe Trump’s approach as “transactional”, as if somehow this is just a business deal based on offering a product and negotiating a price. Given Trump’s ruthless business history, there is a grain of truth in this. But just a grain.
Far more significant is the fact that Trump represents voracious US imperialism, that in recent decades has been significantly weakened both economically and geopolitically. A dangerous new competitor – China – has emerged.
US imperialism’s desperate struggle to maintain its global hegemony is driving this new, volatile and dangerous foreign policy. It is turbo-charged by Trump’s bullying personality, needful of power and control, and empowered by provoking conflict and fear in others.
The primitive analysis of those who, just a year ago, claimed “events have dramatically confirmed the power of Cold War bloc consolidation” has been thrown out of a high-storey window.
Trump’s team has threatened and cajoled the US’s long-term allies to force them to succumb to the US’s new line. As the “Politico” news resource comments: “the EU has to choose between becoming a satrap of the U.S. or breaking free to steer its own course — and it must decide quickly.”
At the same time Trump is cosying up to opponents including Belarusian president Lukashenko, and most dramatically Putin.
Typical of Trump’s tactics is his threat to turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. Publicly supporting this plan to ethnic cleanse Gaza, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff in more guarded comments justified the threat claiming it contained nothing new, and forced others to come up with their own plans.
Indeed, the anger within the ruling circles of the Arab regimes was tenable. In trying to avoid openly opposing Trump, they have to take into account the mood of “the street”, the Arab masses who will not forgive the betrayal of the Palestinians if the Arab regimes abandon their right to a homeland. Under Egypt’s guidance they are scraping together an investment fund to finance the rebuilding of Gaza.
Whatever Trump’s intention, his threats have boosted Netanyahu and the warmongers in Israel.
US drops pretence of opposing authoritarianism
Now Trump’s attention has turned to Ukraine. Having bragged he would end the war in Ukraine “in one day” he is under some pressure to at least set the process in motion. But this is not his main motivation. US imperialism under his direction is prioritising its resources to challenge its main opponent – Chinese imperialism.
Whilst the Biden administration followed a strategy of building alliances to combat China, Trump’s approach is based on the belief that the US can stand alone, as long as it reduces its commitments elsewhere.
At the same time, Trump’s vulture-capitalist nature is eyeing up the business opportunities offered by re-opening the Russian market, and exploiting Ukraine’s natural resources.
There is also an undeniable political affinity between Trump and Putin – they are both authoritarian, racist, misogynist, anti-women and LGBTQ+ wanting to return to the ‘family values’ and societal norms of the nineteenth, not the twenty first century. They are both part of the growing far-right, ultra conservative trend growing across the world.
Ukraine though doesn’t fit easily into this alliance. The “Orange revolution” in 2004 and then “Euromaidan” in 2014 were both driven by the desire of Ukrainians to escape the authoritarian grip of the Kremlin, looking instead to western European society – which, however flawed, they saw as more prosperous, democratic and free.
During the war, Ukrainian society has become less democratic, the importance of womens’ and LGBTQ+ rights has been diminished, but there is a large qualitative difference between Ukrainian society and authoritarian Russia.
Trump’s affinity with other authoritarian leaders raises questions of how he will get on with Xi Jinping. On 13 February he announced: “One of the first meetings I want to have [is] with President Xi [of] China and with President Putin of Russia and I want to say, ‘let’s cut our military budget in half.”
With Xi coming to Moscow’s 9 May WW2 Victory Celebrations, and rumours that Trump too will attend, some Chinese commentators are speculating that this will open the door to a new “Yalta” – with the aim of reshaping the geopolitical landscape and division of the world into three “spheres of interest”.
This idea would have been unthinkable even weeks ago, but the past few weeks has demonstrated that anything has become thinkable. At the very least it cannot be excluded that Trump will attempt some ‘transactional’ dealings with Xi Jinping.
Will the war end?
The road to ending the war still has a long way to go. Trump’s approach so far is to provide a massive lifeline to Putin’s regime at the expense of Ukraine, and its right to live free of occupation.
There will be new twists and turns in coming months, but one thing is clear. Whatever the final outcome, as long as the Russian regime remains in place, and the world is dominated by the increasingly volatile and militarised inter-imperialist conflicts, Ukraine’s existence as a free, independent country will be permanently under threat.
The very fact that the first negotiations took place between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rubio in Saudi Arabia without even inviting Ukraine underlines this.
They concluded by agreeing to restore diplomatic relations between US and Russia, appoint teams of negotiators, and investigate possible geopolitical and economic cooperation between the US and Russia.
These points have been followed by sharp statements by the US that Ukraine will not be able to reclaim the areas occupied by Russia, while Russia has said it still wants complete control over the four annexed regions, as well as by new threats and insults.
Capitalist vultures circling over Ukraine
As these events unfolded, one headline spoke of the US and Russia “sharpening the carving knives”. To double down on his threats, Trump posted that Zelensky had “better move fast or he won’t have a country left”.
What appears to be widespread shock at the brutal imperialist arrogance of Trump and his lieutenants will at a certain stage turn into anger. It will be a bitter lesson for many in Ukraine that the imperialist powers are not just unreliable partners, but that it is inevitable that they will be betrayed by imperialism when its interests diverge from those of the occupied and oppressed.
Trump is proposing the open looting of Ukraine’s resources, demanding $500 billion worth of rare-earth metals and minerals to compensate for US expenditure in support of Ukraine – which over 3 years has totalled $122 billion. One report suggests that the White House handed Zelensky a contract handing over half of Ukraine’s minerals and hydrocarbons, including those produced in the future, worth trillions of dollars to sign.
Over the past three years Ukrainians have been learning that “free cheese is only found in a mousetrap”. All the aid so far sent to Ukraine has been tied to fierce conditions. The privatisation of agricultural land has been forced through, and in 2024 a programme of large-scale privatisation was launched.
While the summit in Saudi Arabia was taking place, the IMF was visiting Kyiv. In return for a new loan, amongst other reforms it is demanding further budget cuts and a five-fold increase in domestic energy prices. And, of course, the loan has to be repaid, which as one commentator remarked: “as long as the war continues, we don’t need to worry, but when it ends, then there is a problem.”
Unlike Trump, some vultures like Britain’s Keir Starmer disguise their nature behind friendship. His Foreign Office though has recently written: “[we should use] the invasion not only as a crisis, but also as an opportunity”. The “opportunity” it sees is being able to profit from the privatisation of Ukraine’s state-owned banks, titanium mines and 3500 other state-owned enterprises that Zelensky plans to sell.
Russian regime gloating
The Russian media reports with glee claims by Trump that Ukraine started the war, while Sergei Lavrov, the Foreign Minister, is stepping up his claims that “a multi-million diaspora of Hitlerite collaborationists has settled” in Ukraine, the Baltic States, EU and Canada.
It is no accident that the Kremlin is prepared to come to a deal with Trump. The military campaign is again stalling, its economy is showing real signs of stress, and the Russian population has grown increasingly tired of the situation.
Recent minimal advances have been exaggerated both by the Kremlin to assure the population of progress, as well as by the Zelensky government to pressurise the west to continue sending aid. Pro-Russian lefts use hyperbole to claim Russia has taken “6 times more territory in 2024 than in 2023. Russia’s massive manpower advantage and the superiority of its war-centred economy have proven decisive in attritional warfare.”
Since 2022, just 0.76% of Ukrainian land has changed hands at the cost of over 400,000 Russian troops. Even at the highest rate of advance seen last year, just capturing the remaining 30% of the four annexed regions will take Russia five years.
Between a third and half of eighty ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet have been damaged or destroyed including a submarine and the Cruiser Moskva. It has been forced to withdraw from its base in Crimea to Russia itself. The ‘temporary’ incursion of Ukrainian troops into Russia’s Kursk region has now lasted six months.
Despite high enrolment bonuses, recruitment is not sufficient to replace losses. At the same time, factories do not have the capacity to replace artillery, tanks and ammunition fast enough to replace the amount currently used. The “National Reserve Fund”, built up to huge levels from oil and gas revenues in the boom years has been practically emptied.
Russia’s isolation, at least until Trump’s friendly handshake, was also growing. Former allies such as Armenia and the states of Central Asia, as well as Belarus have been distancing themselves. Since an Azeri airline was shot down by Russian missiles in December, the Azeri government has turned hostile. And of course Russia has been dealt a serious blow in Syria.
Russian economy stalling
The economy is showing real strain. 40% of the federal budget is now used for military expenditure, including arms production. This not only leaves less money for other sectors, but is fuelling inflation which, even officially, is over 10%. Prices in the shops are increasing much quicker. The Kremlin fears this can lead to discontent so is pressuring the central bank to stifle price rises by raising the Bank rate. It reached 21% in November, causing squeals of agony from industry, which has been pressurised to take credit to finance the war, and now has to pay higher interest.
Further pressure on the economy is caused by both China and India. Having exploited western sanctions against Russian hydrocarbons to buy them cheaply, they now say they will restrict the ability of Russia’s ‘grey fleet’ to use its ports.
Much significance was given in 2023 to the 26% growth in China-Russia, largely due to Chinese companies replacing western ones as they withdrew from Russia. In 2024 though, trade grew by less than 2% to $244 billion, which after inflation marks a decline. In the same year China-US trade grew by 3.7% reaching $688 billion.
Having brutally dealt with the hard-liners around Prigozhin, followed by a purge of the Generals, the Kremlin now faces growing discontent within the business elite. On top of this, the latest opinion poll indicates that 65% of the population want immediate negotiations to end the war.
As the Kremlin itself no longer sees the possibility of new big gains in Ukraine, Trump’s moves have been timely, allowing it to move to end the war with the advantage of presenting it as at least a partial victory. At the same time, it fears the aftermath when the real costs become clear.
So, the economic lifeline offered by Trump is also important. The third member of Russia’s delegation to Saudi Arabia was Kirill Dmitriev, Stanford and Harvard educated, and a close friend of the Putin family, who is head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund.
He revealed that the talks with the US included a possible joint oil exploration project in the Arctic. US companies, including Coca-Cola and McDonald’s are already planning their return to Russia maybe by the second quarter of 2025.
Ukraine’s economy
The last months have seen a real change in the situation in Ukraine itself. To paraphrase one commenter from Kyiv: in 2022, there was a general enthusiasm and unrealistic optimism that the Russians could be forced back, in 2023 optimism began to retreat and was replaced in 2024 by strict realism as the continuing sacrifices on the front have seen no significant change over the past two years, a feeling accelerated by the looming inauguration of Trump.
The economic situation has not helped. After the dramatic collapse in the first year of war, 2023 and 2024 have seen some restoration. Overall GDP is 78% of what it was in 2021. This is in part due to the loss of production from occupied areas, and a smaller population.
There are major problems ahead though. Not least is the large increase in state debt, now equal to 100% of GDP. If fighting stops, it is thought that between 30 and 50% of those who left the country may return, wanting jobs and homes.
Even now, opinion polls indicate that the overwhelming majority think that all the occupied territories should be retaken, but in the last months belief that this is possible has fallen. Now the majority want negotiations and an end to the war, a change that has been accelerated by Trump’s election.
This is obviously a general picture. In the first months, there was a strong feeling of unity against the common enemy, but increasingly the mood in different sections of society has been diversifying.
Within the army, despite reports of desertions (although nowhere near the level of those on the Russian side) there still seems to be a grim determination to oppose the continued attempts by Russia to advance.
But while the army demands more resources, civil society is growing more resistant to its demands. This is most notably seen in the growing resistance to conscription. Corruption too has continued unabated despite numerous campaigns against it.
Support for Zelensky has declined since the start of the war, his rating is still far higher than in 2021. In December it stood at 57% despite Trump’s absurd claim that it had fallen to 4%. After Trump’s attack it rose to 63%. How the political scene will change as some form of deal develops remains to be seen.
The far-right, organised in groups such as the Right Sector, which gained notoriety after Euromaidan has lost many of its activists during the fighting. A ‘torch-light’ march in Lviv in December was many times smaller than those before the war. The pro-Russian sympathies of the far right in other countries will probably feed into a further undermining of support.
Nevertheless, if Ukraine is left humiliated after peace negotiations it will feed into nationalist sentiments, possibly aligned with a pro-EU orientation. This is caused not just by the absence of a strong left within Ukraine. The small left forces that do exist have tied themselves to western – mainly EU – imperialism.
The likely contours of a negotiated deal
While Trump was pouring scorn on Zelensky, his representative Kit Kellogg was in Ukraine to “listen to Kyiv’s concerns”. He met Zelensky’s representative Andrey Yermak who told him that what was important “was how this war was to be stopped… Ukraine needs guarantees of security, defence and economic guarantees.”
Kellogg though spent the night pressurising Zelensky to sign the one-sided agreement to transfer half of the country’s natural resources. The arrogant threats and blackmail by the US are beginning to look as if Ukraine will simply be presented with an ultimatum to concede. Without negotiations.
Rumours circulated over the weekend that the Kremlin may even declare “victory” within days. Presumably this would mean a unilateral “ceasefire” with the Russians occupying the current territory, with the Ukrainians having no say. Any attempts by the Ukrainians to take back territory will soon peter out.
This will leave part of Ukraine occupied by Russian imperialism, with its authoritarian reactionary regime in the Kremlin building its forces for the next wave of attacks.
Meanwhile Ukrainians will be left waiting for the next invasion. Estimates of the cost of reconstruction suggest $500 billion are needed over 10 years. Yet the western imperialist powers will demand their compensation for the aid given during the war – through mass privatisation, debt repayments, and the outright exploitation and theft of its natural resources.
In this situation aid from Europe will also be under question. Despite the fine words about standing together with Ukraine, European leaders are now desperately working out how to stop their interests being undermined by aggressive Trumpism. Poland’s President Duda is already putting pressure on Zelensky to establish “constructive cooperation” with Trump.
British Premier Starmer, one of Zelensky’s outspoken supporters, is meeting Trump this week and, according to British press reports, does not intend to raise Trump’s attacks on Ukraine for fear of upsetting him. In Germany, the far-right AfD, openly supported by Vance, Musk and the Kremlin doubled its vote in the election, and will push the new government to the right.
If though negotiations do progress, which appears to depend on Zelensky’s agreement to sell off Ukraine’s natural resources, it is now clear that the most Ukraine can hope for is the freezing of the current front-lines, and an agreement for “peace-keeping” troops to police the process.
As in 2014, the extension of Russian authoritarianism into the occupied areas only allows the Kremlin to rebuild its forces, rearm its army ready for the next opportunity to attack the remainder of Ukraine. Trump has even suggested that Putin has the right to the whole of Ukraine.
“Peace-keeping” forces do not have a good record in recent years. The way in which they failed to prevent the inter-ethnic conflicts, including the Srebrenica massacre during the post-Yugoslavian wars is widely recognised. Elsewhere, in 2014 UN peacekeepers simply looked on as victims of Darfur’s war were killed, raped and beaten.
Even in recent months, Canadian “peacekeepers” in the Democratic Republic of Congo have been withdrawn, unable to prevent fighting in Goma, and UN “peacekeepers” stood by as the Israeli Defence Force attacked Southern Lebanon.
Is there a way forward?
The last three years have demonstrated in the most brutal fashion that relying on one or other imperialist force to guarantee the existence of an independent Ukraine is a fatal mistake. Whilst, for its own interests, western imperialism was prepared to aid Ukraine for a period, it wants to see compensation for the aid at the end of the war.
And now Ukraine is seeing its hopes for complete independence not only attacked by the reactionary Russian regime, but crushed underfoot by US imperialism. Ukraine joins a long list of countries whose democracy and/or independence have been betrayed by western imperialism – Chile, Iraq, Yemen, Panama, Palestine, Kurdistan – the list is long.
Is there an alternative? Yes. But it’s not easy. It means replacing imperialism and capitalism with a democratic socialist society. That can only be achieved by building organisations of the working class and oppressed with a political conscious and revolutionary leadership, completely independent of the capitalist elite.
It is though an unfortunate truism that Ukraine’s experience of “socialism” has been completely undermined by Stalinism.
The Stalinist purges and forced collectivisation which left millions dead combined with the struggle for independence from the “socialist” Soviet Union, combined with the use of Stalinist methods and symbols by the reactionary Putin regime mean that many Ukrainians associate socialism with reaction and national oppression.
The principled position of Lenin, Trotsky and the Bolsheviks in defending Ukraine’s right to self-determination is not just forgotten, but buried under the weight of Stalinist crimes and reactionary distortions.
Many socialists in this situation fall back to repeat previous mistakes and recite mantras. Many have spread illusions in imperialism, some even in Russian and Chinese imperialism. Others preach that the only way to defeat imperialism and end wars is the socialist revolution, without any strategy for building the organisations and winning the political arguments that can lead to socialist revolution.
Support for socialist change can only be built if socialists in Ukraine, as in the rest of the world, working side by side with the workers movement, feminist and LGBTQ+ groups campaign for demands and a political programme that can demonstrate in practice why socialism is needed, and how to achieve it.
Such a programme needs to start with the complete recognition that Ukraine has the right to self-determination, that all Russian troops should be withdrawn from Ukraine;
It needs to completely reject the current ultimatums and blackmail used by the imperialists to force Ukraine to make a decision. Only the Ukrainian people itself has the right to decide the fate of Ukraine, that should be decided by democratic discussions and votes in the workplaces, places of study and in the rank and file of the army;
The threats of Trump and his demands to take control of Ukraine’s natural resources must be rejected, as well as the mass privatisation, deregulation and price rises demanded by the IMF and European union to pay for the war. Ukraine’s debts to international bodies and banks should be cancelled, the Ukrainian people should not have to pay for the war.
Ukraine’s natural resources and key industries should be nationalised under democratic workers’ control and used as part of a democratic plan to rebuild homes, factories and Ukraine’s infrastructure. The wealth of the oligarchs, Russian and Ukrainian, should be used to finance this.
The threat of new wars can only be avoided when their root cause, capitalism and imperialism is defeated. The only force capable of providing a real alternative to Russian imperialism is the Russian working class, organised and politically conscious as part of the international working class.
There should be full support for the anti-war movement in Russia, for the release of all political prisoners and for the building of a strong working-class movement unifying all oppressed layers to challenge the rule of the oligarch’s dictatorship and its replacement by a democratic socialist society.
We support peace, but that can only be achieved on a permanent basis when the causes of war – capitalism and imperialism are defeated. Only then can a truly democratic peace be established in the region and across the world, a peace that recognizes the right of all peoples to self-determination, recognizes their right to have their own independent state, free from external intervention and threats, but also recognizes the rights of languages and ethnic minorities.
It is for these reasons we are for the maximum unity of the working class of Ukraine, Russia and all countries against the rule of the oligarchs whether in Russia or the US, and instead are working for an international federation of democratic socialist states.
