By Drew Frayne
Bucking the international trend of far right electoral gains, the Irish electorate by and large rejected the far right’s programme of anti-immigration, anti-LGBTQ, ultra conservative policies. The surge in anti-immigration protests in the preceding year, the momentum built in the local elections in June and the apparent support on social media, failed to translate into general election gains.
Despite fielding over 70 candidates, no far-right parties or independents were elected in the 2024 general election. Right-populist parties, Aontú and Independent Ireland (II), only managed to win two new seats (Aontú in Mayo, and II in Cork North Central) on top of their existing TDs.
Despite their own failures, however, they have managed to shift the main establishment parties to the right, particularly on immigration. Likewise the main opposition party Sinn Féin, which often tries to paint itself as an anti-establishment party of progress. All of these parties put forward more hard-line immigration policies in the course of the two 2024 elections.
Of course, as global trends signify, most notably in the election of Trump and his new billionaire regime, far-right ideas and forces are on the rise. In Ireland, they are emboldened, and have learned many valuable lessons from their foray into mainstream politics. The relatively large share of votes they received, especially in the local elections, compared to previous elections when it was virtually nil, serves as a serious warning.
The new right-wing government coalition of FF, FG and Regional Independents, will continue to preside over policies that created fertile ground for the far right, and indeed will be even more susceptible to their rhetoric – whether racist, islamophobic, transphobic, misogynistic or climate change-denying. Socialists, leftists, and trade unionists of all colours must organise against these ideas and the increasing sophistication and organisation of extremist right-wing groups.
How the various groups performed
Overall, the far right’s focus on immigration did not chime with the dominant mood in society – just 6% cited immigration as their main issue in the RTE exit poll. Voters were far more concerned with housing and the cost of living. Attempts to connect those issues to immigration largely fell flat given the huge budget surplus going into the election, with all parties making unusually large spending commitments – resources clearly aren’t scarce. Of course, in a different future context of economic recession, they may then get more of an echo for their divisive propaganda.
Still, almost 20 candidates got a higher than 2% of first preference during the GE, which is 20 more than the far-right’s previous electoral attempts.
The National Alliance, comprising the National Party, the Irish People, Ireland First, and some independents, implemented vote management strategies to optimise their electoral performance, and avoid competition, which occurred during the local elections. However, even prominent figures like Cllr Malachy Steenson in Dublin Central and Derek Blighe in Cork North-Central garnered less than 5% of the vote, indicating limited public support, but still a firm start on their electoral ambitions, and a foundation for future attempts.
The Irish Freedom Party, which didn’t join the alliance, also failed to win any seats. Led by Hermann Kelly, a former protege of Nigel Farage, they tried to distance themselves from the other far-right parties. Over half of their 15 candidates won 1,000 or more first preference votes. Since the election the IFP has gone into major crisis, however, with a significant section, including some who would prefer to take their politics in a more vigilante direction, splintering off and others being expelled.
A new split-off group, Sinne Na Daoine (SnD), are establishing “community safety” patrols, targeting asylum seekers and immigrants. This is in tandem with the recent proliferation of illegal road checkpoints in some rural areas. Founded by Anthony Casey, a failed IFP candidate and one of those expelled, SnD claims to act as a “watchdog tool for communities”. The development of this group, and the likely increase of far-right vigilantism is a consequence of the state’s softly-softly approach. If any other grouping, be they socialists, republicans, trade unionists, or God forbid immigrants, had attempted similar practices, the response from the state would be swift and brutal.
Aontú doubles vote
Aontú, the anti-abortion, right-populist party returned its leader Peadar Tóibín, and secured a second seat in Mayo. Tóibín said after the election that “The story of this election is the growth of Aontú”, which is obviously ridiculous, although they did double their vote. This was mostly due to Tóibín’s media-savvy approach and emphasis on “economic justice” issues like housing. Indeed, he was given an undue amount of media attention during the election campaign. For the most part in this election, Aontú had a strategy of not emphasising their anti-choice and conservative views.
Their ambiguous stance on immigration, relying on racist innuendos rather than overtly racist rhetoric, was an attempt to distance themselves from the blatantly racist forces of the far right (which has seen them marked as a patsy for the establishment in far-right forums). However, the high transfer rate between the far-right candidates and Aontú shows that their vote contains a definite hard-right element.
Aontú’s ability to skillfully pose as reasonable right-wing critics of the government parties, while concealing their more offensive positions, makes them one of the more capable – and therefore potentially dangerous – right populist parties, who will no doubt attempt to bring about ultra conservative policies by stealth.
Right wing’s influence on Irish politics
Despite their lack of electoral success, far-right groups have influenced public discourse, particularly on immigration. Their lies about refugees have gained traction on social media, and the three big parties have adopted more stringent immigration policies. It’s likely that targeting trans rights will be a focus of the far right, which can also see the political establishment shift backwards here too. Disgracefully, Sinn Féin is already leading on this, with its support for the cruel puberty blockers ban being extended from the UK to the North.
In response to their electoral failures, some far-right candidates have propagated bizarre conspiracy theories alleging election fraud. These claims, lacking any evidence, are an attempt to replicate Trumpian election strategies pioneered by Steve Bannon, and to potentially build their base for future political endeavors.
The persistence of far-right ideologies, despite electoral setbacks, underscores the need to address the underlying conditions that facilitate their appeal. Economic precarity, the housing and healthcare crises, and systemic inequalities create fertile ground for reactionary movements. More broadly, a capitalist system in decay globally is intensifying political polarisation, and bringing right-wing extremism from the fringes back into the mainstream. The worst is yet to come.
That’s why we need to organise a concerted fightback by workers and young people, and all the oppressed. As the far right regroups and consolidates their efforts, left parties, trade unions, student unions, and community organisations need to step up the response. Now more than ever, it’s time for people to get active – they’re coming for our rights. The fight against the far right and the system that breeds them is not just necessary; it is urgent.
