By Serge Jordan
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s decades-long dictatorship last December has dramatically reshuffled the cards of Syria’s future. A sense of freedom and jubilation broke through among many Syrians following over five decades of tyranny. However, it is tempered by fear and unease, as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now the self-proclaimed authority in Damascus, starts exposing its true nature, while imperialist vultures of all stripes circle once again, eager to tear off their piece of flesh from the country’s battered remains.
It was a military offensive by right-wing militias that precipitated Assad’s downfall. However, this outcome was rooted in the regime’s profound internal decay, the evaporation of its social base, and the inability of its foreign backers—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—to gather the necessary forces to keep it standing. As Talleyrand (Napoleon’s foreign minister) is often quoted, “You can do many things with bayonets, but you cannot sit on them.” The Assad regime’s reliance on brute force and external support proved incapable of compensating for its eroded legitimacy and internal weaknesses.
The House of Assad has disintegrated at a stunning speed, its torture chambers flung open, its mass graves exposed, and its obscene wealth laid bare—a ruling dynasty reveling in grotesque opulence while the Syrian masses endured abject poverty. Testament of the regime’s cruelty and unpopularity, the unveiling of these facts are also a damning verdict on all those on the supposed ‘left’ (like British politician George Galloway, American journalist Max Blumenthal and the Grayzone website, and various stalinist currents around the world) who for years, under some twisted ‘anti-imperialist’ logic, have supported a regime drenched in the blood of hundreds of thousands of people. Now they use their loud critique of HTS as a smokescreen to conceal this unforgivable complicity. Assad’s systematic decimation of much of the Syrian left and organised labour was in fact a key factor enabling the rise of right-wing Islamist forces, who filled the opposition void in the aftermath of the 2011 uprising.
What about Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham?
This said, while HTS exploited the Assad regime’s crumbling state and the momentum of vulnerability of its foreign allies, it is no force for progress. On the opposite end of the spectrum from Assad’s apologists stand the ‘left’ cheerleaders of reactionary Islamist outfits, who now give the benefit of the doubt to Abu Mohammed al-Julani’s group. Abdusalam Dallal, writing for MENA Solidarity Network, claims for example that “Trust-building among communities and promoting tolerance will be essential for a unified Syria. The new administration in Syria has already taken promising steps that align with these revolutionary principles.”
Al-Julani may now sport a suit and tie, projecting ‘moderation’ and advocating for a respectful approach to minorities, but his organisation is indissociable from its brutal history of sectarian violence, gangsterism and subjugation of women. Barely two days after the German and French foreign ministers had travelled to Syria’s capital to meet its new de facto rulers —with Annalena Baerbock even declaring Germany’s desire to “overcome scepticism” about HTS— a video footage appeared online showing the Justice Minister in the new HTS-led administration, Shadi Al-Waisi, personally overseeing the execution of two women in Idlib province in 2015. Further underscoring HTS’ entrenched bigotry, a spokesperson for the new government declared that women’s “biological and physiological nature” made them unfit for some government jobs.
Economically, as indicated by both its record in Idlib and public pronouncements from its leaders, HTS promises more of the same “free market” recipes that were the hallmark of Bashar’s regime. The finance minister’s announcement of a 400% wage hike for public sector workers next month, partly bankrolled by Qatari funds, seems to be of a different nature. While a relative improvement, wages would still amount to about $125 a month—in the face of runaway inflation and the collapse of the Syrian pound, this barely scratches the surface of what would be needed for a decent standard of living. This one-off measure deepens Syria’s reliance on foreign donors while ignoring the structural problems at the core of the Syrian economy. The experience of Egypt, which has been heavily reliant on Gulf financial injection, demonstrates that this approach not only comes with ‘strings attached,’ but offers no path out of the unrelenting cycle of poverty for the majority of the population.
Besides, some figures from Assad’s economic elite, architects of mass impoverishment, subsidy cuts, and the dismantling of public resources for private gain, are still occupying their positions, when they have not been recycled into new roles under the new administration —such as the former deputy governor of the Central Bank, now promoted to the institution’s highest office. More generally, HTS has incorporated a cohort of opportunists and bureaucrats from the disgraced regime, proving itself not a genuine force for change but the custodian, under a new flag, of the same predatory class policies that have ravaged Syria’ social fabric for many years.
Among the country’s patchwork of religious and ethnic minorities, few take the HTS’ newfound preaching of inter-communal tolerance at face value. While mostly in check for now, the spectre of sectarian reprisals or reignited tensions remains acute, a tool HTS could wield to consolidate its power and deflect from its inability to address the population’s pressing needs. Meanwhile, remnants of the former regime and social media accounts sympathetic to the ousted president are also actively involved in stoking sectarian discord, trying to tap into the legitimate fears of HTS’ rule among sections of the Alawite population. These forces represent a threat especially in the coastal areas where many high-ranking military officers, security officials, pro-Assad militia and ex-regime loyalists are concentrated.
As for the democratic rights that millions of Syrians are yearning for, al-Julani has declared that the preparation of a new constitution could take up to three years, and elections up to four. These are not timelines of a democratic process but stall, top-down tactics designed to entrench HTS’s grip on power. While much attention has focused on the release of prisoners from Assad’s jails, many dissidents remain imprisoned by HTS in Idlib, with no sign of release. Attempts by HTS supporters to conveniently brand any criticism of their government as the work of ‘feloul’ (remnants of the old regime) are expectedly already on display.
However, none of this guarantees that HTS will be able to roll over its agenda uncontested. The aspirations for real change at the base of society is a counterforce they will have to contend with. This was already shown when the new authorities announced regressive changes to the school curriculum —including the removal of poetry relating to women, of all negative references to the Ottoman Empire, and of evolutionary and Big Bang theories from science textbooks. The fierce backlash they faced compelled them to retreat, a strong reminder that the Syrian people are unlikely to stay idle in the face of new oppressive and authoritarian threats.
No foreign power stands with the peoples of Syria
As the Syrian masses grapple with the imposition of this new regime, they are also confronted with a frenetic diplomatic circus, where the world’s capitalist powers rush to ingratiate themselves with Syria’s new Islamist rulers. These rulers, in turn, are busy establishing their international credentials, most notably towards the deep-pocketed Gulf monarchies. The drive to assert geopolitical leverage amid the escalating inter-imperialist tensions, alongside the prospect of cashing in on Syria’s vast reconstruction market, are key motivations behind the efforts of multiple powers to put —or preserve— their hands over the Syrian pie.
The EU and the United States, with shameless cynicism, now try to repackage HTS as a respectable force. The U.S. government—who mere weeks before Assad’s fall, was involved in talks brokered by the Emirati regime to relieve sanctions against Assad—has now conveniently erased the $10 million bounty on al-Julani’s head, in place since 2013. Yesterday’s terrorist, it seems, has become today’s aspiring partner. This reactive about-face exposes the absurdity of those on the left —the leadership of ISA, from which we recently parted ways, among them— who propagated the baseless myth that Assad’s overthrow was the handiwork of “US-backed forces.”
Western imperialist powers are now desperate to construct a narrative of ‘democratic transition’ in Syria—an exercise in political sleight of hand designed to obscure their true motives. At the heart of this is their urgent desire to forcibly return Syrian refugees to a country still ravaged by war and repression. The moment HTS seized control, many European governments wasted no time in seizing the opportunity to halt asylum for Syrian refugees, encouraging repatriations and deportations. This comes from the same imperialist states that have been complicit in over 14 months of genocidal carnage carried out by the Israeli state against the Palestinians in Gaza, displaying once more their unbridled indifference to the suffering of the oppressed in the region.
Meanwhile, the defenders of Moscow’s narrative, who have long parroted the lie that Russia’s intervention was about defending a ‘secular’ regime against Islamist terror, find themselves tongue-tied. Even before Assad’s flight, Russian state media quietly ceased referring to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization. Now, the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, openly advocates for removing the terrorist label from HTS, while Moscow has been engaged in establishing direct ties with the new regime. A former senior Russian official told the Financial Times that Russia was reaching out to HTS with “friendship and love”.The once-vaunted protector of secularism is now groveling before the same forces it claimed to oppose. The stakes for Putin are high indeed — Russia hasn’t merely lost an ally in the Baathist regime; its Syrian bases are crucial for its operations in Africa and its presence in the Mediterranean.
In this rekindled frenzy by foreign powers to assert (or desperately preserve) their influence in the ‘new’ Syria, we cannot overlook the military raids and seizures of land by the Israeli regime, which exploited Syria’s meltdown to advance its own pawns, and sent a clear warning that any threat to its interests by the new power in Damascus will not go unchallenged. Israel has already expanded its illegal occupation of the Golan Heights and seized the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. This bolsters its strategic position as it puts the IDF within striking distance of Damascus and grants it the ability to monitor key areas, including Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley —a Hezbollah stronghold and supply route. The clamoring within Israel for the permanent annexation of this captured territory is growing louder, fueled by speculation about a window of opportunity to further the “Greater Israel” project under the Trump administration. With Trump in power, Assad out, and Syria’s air defenses practically obliterated, the chilling prospect of striking Iran’s nuclear sites also becomes a more feasible option for Israeli war hawks.
But what is deeply telling is the response—or lack thereof—from HTS. Despite Israel’s destructive campaign in Syria following Assad’s removal, including over 800 airstrikes, HTS is trying its utmost best to avoid a confrontation with the Israeli regime, as evidenced by the many statements in which the new Syrian government extends overtures to Tel Aviv. Much like Assad’s regime, HTS appears more interested in preserving its ammunition to crush domestic opposition than to liberate Syrian territory from Israeli occupation forces.
And, of course, there are the renewed attacks and escalating threats from Turkey against the Kurdish-majority areas in the northeast —an ominous development that underscores the broader stakes for the region. The peoples of Syria, as ever, are left to bear the brunt of this sordid power play—a stark reminder that their liberation lies not in alliances with any of the protagonists of this unprincipled scramble, but in the revival of their own revolutionary struggle.
The role of the masses
A lazy assessment of Syria’s recent turmoil would have it that the Syrian masses have simply bartered one reactionary regime for another. On the surface, this seems self-evident: the fall of Assad’s dictatorship has given way to the rule of HTS, a force with its own deeply reactionary, anti-worker, and sectarian character. But it reflects a mechanical, fatalistic view of history that denies the dynamic role of the masses and their capacity to shape events. Such a perspective ignores the monumental significance of breaking the 54-year-long suffocating stranglehold of Assad’s dictatorship which, while paving the way for a takeover by right-wing islamist forces, also opens up new possibilities for struggle and organisation.
In his article, “From Assad’s nightmare to that of the Islamists –14 points on Syria,” Andreas Payiatsos is a prime example of this deterministic logic. He expresses no recognition of what the overthrow of Assad represents for millions of Syrians apart from “confusion” and “concern”. The article accuses of delusion “the Left that sees something progressive in the overthrow of Assad”. Yet he fails to grapple with the full-sided implications of the removal of a regime whose iron grip on the country stifled every independent expression of resistance.
To reduce such a seismic shift to confusion or mere reactionary replacement, while ignoring the mass outpourings of relief at the fall of a regime of merciless brutality (including in some areas that were once bastions of regime support, like in Latakia), is not only insensitive but erases the importance of this moment —however precarious, fraught and imperfect— as an historic opportunity for the Syrian masses to reorganize and fight anew. As a matter of fact, reports from the ground attest to a renewed atmosphere of political activity, discussions, protests and local initiatives of all sorts: former prisoners or families of those killed by Assad’s forces demanding justice, communities in Quneitra province fighting against the Israeli army’s incursions, women in Qamishli rallying for gender equality, firefighters in Damascus striking to be reinstated in their jobs, inhabitants of the Druze-majority city of Suwayda in the southwest (outside of HTS’ control), wary of the new rulers in the capital, continuing the protest movement they initiated under Bashar’s regime, etc.
Payiatsos already proclaims in advance that “There is no way the people of Syria will see and feel democracy, freedom, peace, and even some limited equality”. Such a politically debilitating claim assumes that these outcomes are predetermined by the character of the forces now in power, as if democracy, freedom, and equality had ever been handed down from above—rather than being won through struggle from below.
It is, without question, absolutely correct and necessary to unflinchingly expose and oppose the counter-revolutionary threat represented by the likes of HTS. We must also confront the profound challenges stemming from the absence of an organized left in Syria today, soberly recognizing the daunting task of rebuilding it from the ground up. But many on the international left fail to contextualize the current developments in Syria within the broader historical framework of the revolutionary wave that erupted across the Middle East and North Africa 14 years ago. This oversight ignores the enduring impact of those uprisings, and their relevance to today’s struggles.
Regional despots, however, are acutely aware of these connections. For instance, Egyptian President Sisi recently insisted that he is “not Assad,” cautioning Egyptians against emulating the Syrian rebels, and warned of a conspiracy to destabilize Egypt, while his security forces detained members of the Syrian community who took to the streets in Cairo to celebrate the fall of Assad, under the pretext of lacking permits. These statements and actions clearly betray a deep insecurity about his own rule.
In Iran, reports of cracks expanding through the upper echelons of the state apparatus reflect the deepening crisis engulfing the regime. The Iranian theocracy long regarded Assad’s Syria as a strategic pillar of its power projection in the Middle East, and of its so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’. The shift in the balance of power precipitated by Assad’s fall certainly creates openings for Tehran’s imperialist rivals —Netanyahu’s Israel and Trump’s United States. But the regime’s faltering grip also exposes its vulnerability to those it fears most: the millions of Iranian workers, youth and oppressed who already harbor seething hatred for their rulers.
Marxists must reject any analysis that paints the future in the colors of inevitability. To do so is to abdicate our role as fighters for the self-emancipation of the working class. Instead of writing off Syria and the region’s working classes and poor, we must highlight the contradictions that now exist, identify the opportunities for resistance, and amplify the voices of those organizing against both imperialist interference and local reaction.
The prospect of new attacks on Rojava
This, of course, should not invite complacency or romanticization, but the opposite. The dangers and challenges following Assad’s demise are manifold. Among them, HTS’ takeover in Damascus has emboldened this group’s primary external backer —the Turkish regime of Erdoğan— which raises the prospect of direct Turkish intervention against the predominantly Kurdish forces that control significant portions of the northeast, in what is known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), or Rojava.
Turkish proxy factions in northern Syria, most notably the Syrian National Army (SNA), have resumed their offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) —a broad coalition of militias still currently supported by the U.S., with its backbone formed by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units/Women’s Protection Units (YPG/YPJ) who operate in Rojava.
The SNA has succeeded in capturing the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifaat in the northern Aleppo province from the SDF, displacing over 150,000 civilians and sparking heavy fighting that continues to rage in the area. The Turkish-backed forces are now poised to target the towns of Kobani and Tabqa, with their eyes set on Raqqa next.
Threats from Ankara are growing more belligerent by the day. On December 25, Erdoğan made it clear that the SDF would face either the choice of surrendering their weapons or being buried in Syrian land. On January 8, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan delivered an ultimatum: “Those international fighters who came from Turkiye, Iran and Iraq must leave Syria immediately. We see neither any preparation nor any intention in this direction right now and we are waiting.” The chauvinist arrogance and irony of this statement are glaring, as in reality, the YPG/YPJ are primarily homegrown forces with deep roots in the region, who have gained significant popular support, while Turkey itself has been meddling in Syria with its own troops and proxies for years with scant regard for the sovereignty of the country or the wishes of its people.
The stationing of U.S. military forces in the northeast acts as a precarious deterrence to Turkish military ambitions for a full-scale assault on the SDF. But Donald Trump’s return to power could alter this balance. While not certain, the possibility for Trump to conclude a deal with Erdoğan facilitating the withdrawal of U.S. troops and effectively sanctioning a Turkish invasion —similar to what occurred in October 2019— will increase. Such an escalation would spell catastrophe for the civilian population, especially the Kurds, posing a fresh and existential threat to Rojava. It underscores the urgent need for an alternative, class-based strategy, one that does not depend on cooperation with the world’s largest imperialist power.
For now, HTS seems to be weighing its options on this question. While unwilling to antagonize Washington, al-Julani’s group, which is rooted in Salafist jihadism, has little sympathy for Kurdish autonomy or self-determination. Murhaf Abu Qasra, a top commander of HTS and defence minister of the ‘transitional’ government, rejected federalism and argued that “all these areas will be under Syria[n authority]”. He also stated that all weapons must come under state control, including those in the SDF-held areas. Al-Julani, for his part, has argued for the SDF to be integrated into the country’s future army —a position which, while pragmatic on the surface, conceals a veiled threat and reflects the group’s vision of a centralized, authoritarian Syrian state under its thumb.
Socialists must resolutely oppose any attempt to wage war on Rojava—not as a blank check to the forces that control these territories, but as a principled stand for the Kurdish people and other minorities’ right to decide their own future. The war on Rojava threatens to unravel the hard-fought gains made by the local population, gains that, though limited, have stood as a beacon of hope and resistance to dictatorship, oppression and patriarchy. Such a war would not only exacerbate sectarian divides but would embolden the most reactionary elements against which the YPG/YPJ forces have fought with undisputable bravery.
However, solidarity with Rojava must not once again fall prey to naive illusions, opportunistic alliances, or short-sighted deals with imperialist powers, i.e. with those who have shown to be friends one day and foes the next. This fatal mistake has cost the Kurdish people dearly throughout their history. Calls from Kurdish officials for U.S. and French troops to secure a demilitarised zone in northern Syria and “help protect the region and establish good relations with Turkey” represents another iteration of the same mistake. This risks turning the region further into a pawn in imperialist power struggles, compromising Rojava’s autonomy, and alienating precious working class and oppressed allies in the region who view, with good reason, U.S. and French imperialism’s record of interventions as harmful to their interests —most glaringly as enablers of the genocide in Gaza.
Only via conscious, independent political action and mobilization by the working class and oppressed peoples can Rojava be defended effectively. A bold, uncompromising appeal to the oppressed masses of Syria, the Middle East, and North Africa for solidarity, and for the resumption of the revolutionary process that began in 2011, is the way forward. United, and relying on no one but themselves, it is the workers, the youth, the unemployed, and the rural poor of every ethnicity, faith, and gender who hold the power to revive the revolution. This time, it must be carried through to its conclusion, leaving no room for any corrupt regimes or any form of oppression.
The experience of Rojava highlights both the potential for change and the immense challenges of sustaining, let alone expanding, such gains without a clear political strategy that connects its immediate defense to the broader struggle for a socialist transformation across borders. This brings into focus the need for a program that addresses both the urgent demands of the present and the longer-term goal of uprooting the capitalist system that perpetuates war, exploitation, and oppression.
A transitional program for Syria
The following is a set of proposals aimed at addressing the immediate and long-term needs of the working class, poor and oppressed peoples of Syria, recognizing the deep suffering endured by millions and the challenges of rebuilding a country torn apart by war. These ideas are not intended as a definitive blueprint, but as part of a conversation with revolutionary forces within Syria today, as well as to provide a framework for solidarity from workers and socialists around the world.
Fight for a socialist confederation across the Middle East, where all peoples—regardless of ethnicity, religion, or gender—can live in dignity and peace, free from imperialist intervention, sectarianism, exploitation, and oppression in all forms.
Lift the remaining economic sanctions on Syria, like the so-called ‘Caesar Act’, and establish price controls and subsidies on basic goods (food, medicine, fuel) to combat inflation and make them affordable for working people
Launch a massive public works program to rebuild Syria’s infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, roads, and housing. This should also employ displaced Syrians, offer fair wages, and ensure worker safety
Guarantee the right of all Syrian refugees to return to their homes, with dignified compensation for those who have lost their homes or livelihoods – ensure that no Syrian refugees are forcibly deported or coerced into returning
Reject any form of sectarian discrimination. Guarantee the protection of religious and ethnic minorities, with equal rights and representation in all areas of public life and equal access to resources, as well as the separation of religion and state
Fight against all forms of gender-based discrimination and violence, and advocate for comprehensive policies promoting gender equality, including equal access to healthcare, education, employment, and pay
Immediately end all political repression and release all political prisoners; this demand should not extend to dangerous individuals known for their involvement in acts of terrorism, including members of Daesh/ISIS or other extremist groups
Ensure that the ‘feloul’, remnants of the Assad regime and all those who have committed human rights abuses and war crimes, are held accountable through independent, elected tribunals that represent all local communities
Guarantee the right to organize, protest, and strike, and to form independent and genuine trade and student unions
Encourage the formation of workers’, peasants’, students’ and neighborhood committees, including to organize democratic, cross-communal self-defense when particular communities, women or marginalized groups are being targeted or threatened. Such local committees could play an important role in the public works and reconstruction program; with their understanding of local needs and possibilities, they would be best positioned to democratically oversee and plan rebuilding efforts
No confidence in the constitution and elections imposed by HTS to serve its own interests. For a genuinely democratic national assembly, with elected representatives from workplaces, residential units, and all religious and ethnic groups, to collectively hammer out how the country will be run
Build independent political workers’ organizations rooted in struggle, capable of acting as a counterbalance to all reactionary militias and capitalist state structures
Demand an end to all interference and military interventions by foreign powers that seek to manipulate Syria’s political future for their own interests. Oppose all attacks on Rojava by the Turkish military and its proxies, and support the Kurdish people’s inalienable right to self-determination; oppose the Israeli military’s attacks and its illegal occupation of the Golan Heights —the recent expansion as well as the historic occupation since 1967, as well as its control over Mount Hermon
Tax the wealthy, large corporations, and former war profiteers to finance reconstruction and social programs
Seize land from large landowners and distribute it to peasants and agricultural workers to boost local production and food security
Nationalize key sectors of the economy (banks, oil, energy, agriculture, transportation, and telecommunications) and all the assets of Assad’s clan. Place them under the control of workers and working class communities through elected councils, to ensure these resources are managed transparently and used for the benefit of the majority
Develop a long-term plan for a democratically managed socialist economy, focusing on the collective ownership of major economic sectors and democratic planning, to meet human needs instead of private profit
Ensure that reconstruction efforts are based on sustainable, green development practices that protect the environment and help mitigate the impacts of climate change, which have exacerbated the crisis in Syria for years
Fight for a genuinely socialist Syria, built on workers’ power and the self-determination of all communities, in stark opposition to Bashar al-Assad regime’s false ‘socialism,’ which was rooted in authoritarianism, sectarianism, and crony capitalism.
